How Peaceful Protest by Just 3.5 Percent of Americans Could Force Major Policy Changes From the Trump Administration
History shows that when just 3.5 percent of a population—about 12 million Americans—engage in peaceful protest, their demands become nearly impossible to ignore. This 3.5 percent rule was developed principally by Erica Chenoweth of Harvard University who studied 323 worldwide occurrences of violent and nonviolent campaigns to overthrow authoritarian leaders between 1900 and 2006, and found that every movement with at least 3.5 percent population participation succeeded. And nonviolent movements were twice as likely to succeed as violent campaigns.
This is particularly relevant today, as Americans continue to defend due process and health care rights amid a rise in authoritarian policies.
A remarkably small number of Americans can help stop the nation’s slide into authoritarianism. Political science research has quantified that when a mere 3.5 percent of a nation’s population mobilizes in peaceful protest at a key moment, it becomes nearly impossible for the government to ignore the people’s demands for transformative change. If Americans who oppose the Trump administration’s policies effectively mobilize in large enough numbers, they have a solid road map to ensuring that the government does not ignore their demands on issues such as deporting community members without due process, cutting vital health care and food programs to pay for millionaires’ tax breaks, and engaging in unprecedented power grabs.
